【金银比破百：白银估值修复窗口打开】金十期货4月23日讯，2025年4月，黄金与白银价格比值攀升至105以上，突破百年均值区间（50-80）逾40%，为近百年第五次金银比破百，前四次分别对应二战前夕、苏联解体、新冠疫情及美联储激进加息期。①极端比值映射出市场对滞胀风险及政策不确定性的极致定价，但历史规律显示，金银比破百后往往伴随白银的超额收益窗口开启，②当前比值偏离历史中枢60约75%，白银的估值修复动能正在积聚。当前白银绝对估值处于历史低位，30.8美元/盎司的价格较2011年名义高点低38%，投资者可沿两条主线布局：1. 多白银空黄金套利：捕捉比值向中枢回归的相对确定性机会；2. 逢低配置白银期货：30美元以下具备安全边际。③金银比破百是市场恐慌情绪的极端表达，但亦是白银估值修复的明确信号。历史规律与产业周期共振下，白银的相对低估终将通过黄金避险溢价回落或工业需求回归实现均值回归。当前市场已进入“赔率优先”阶段，投资者需在波动中保持定力，捕捉金银比收敛与流动性拐点的双重机遇。
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