Columbia Sportswear Company COLM is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 1, after the market closes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $761.9 million, which indicates 1.1% decrease from the year-ago period. This is in sync with the company’s guidance, which indicates a net sales decline of 1-3% to a range of $749-$764 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 69 cents over the past 30 days, which implies a decline of 2.8% from the year-ago period. Management has guided earnings between 62 cents and 70 cents per share.

COLM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 36.7%, on average. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors Likely to Influence COLM’s Q1 Results

Columbia Sportswear’s first-quarter 2025 revenues are expected to have declined due to lapping a very cold winter in January and February of last year that temporarily boosted demand, a trend not expected to recur this year. Moreover, last year's first-quarter results were elevated by the accelerated shipment of Spring 2024 wholesale orders to support the transition to PFAS-free chemistry. This year, shipping patterns are expected to have returned to a more normalized timeline.

Columbia Sportswear has been contending with a challenging U.S. market, marked by softened consumer demand. However, the company has been seeing stronger performance internationally, especially in China and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region. 

While the aforementioned factors are likely to have weighed on the top line, any deleverage in SG&A expenses due to elevated incentive compensation and direct-to-consumer expenses will have an impact on the bottom line. On its last earnings call, COLM projected a first-quarter operating margin between 5.4% and 6%, with the midpoint of 5.7%, down 10 basis points from the year-ago quarter.

Nonetheless, COLM’s product innovation, ACCELERATE Growth Strategy and cost-saving initiatives are likely to have provided some cushion. Key initiatives like expanding premium product lines, boosting marketing investments and strengthening retail partnerships are likely to have driven consumer engagement.

What the Zacks Model Predicts for COLM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Columbia Sportswear this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Columbia Sportswear has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Under Armour, Inc. UAA has an Earnings ESP of +20.75% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The consensus estimate for Under Armour’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at a loss of 9 cents per share, implying a decline of 181.8% from the year-ago quarter. For Under Armour’s quarterly revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.2 billion, which indicates a decrease of 13.1% from the year-ago quarter. UAA delivered an earnings surprise of 166.7% in the last quarter.

V.F. Corporation VFC currently has an Earnings ESP of +32.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, indicating a 7.7% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The consensus estimate for V.F. Corporation’s earnings is pegged at a loss of 15 cents per share, implying a 53.1% gain from the year-ago quarter’s actual. VFC delivered an earnings surprise of 82.4% in the last quarter.

Ralph Lauren RL currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3. RL is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating a 4.1% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Ralph Lauren’s earnings is pegged at $1.96 per share, implying a 14.6% jump from the year-ago quarter. RL delivered an earnings surprise of 7.6% in the last quarter.

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