高盛发表研报指，周大福(01929.HK) 日前公布了截至今年3月底止2025财年第四季度营运数据，内地自营店同店销售按年下跌13%，略为好过该行预期的下跌15%。港澳市场同店销售按年下跌23%，较上季的下跌21%及高盛预测的下跌20%略低。
周大福管理层在电话会议中透露，全年收入料符合按年跌幅为高单位数的指引，毛利率及经营溢利率料高于指引，按年提升4.5至5及2.5至3个百分点。高盛预期是受惠于黄金价格上涨以及高毛利率产品占比增加，但下半财年或部分被超过30亿元的黄金对冲亏损所抵销。管理层目标于2026财年将定价产品占比提升至介乎20%至23%，预料有助进一步提升毛利率。
高盛预测2025财年毛利率扩张主要来自黄金价格上涨的推动，2026财年相关支持因素可能减少，因此将2025财年净利润预测从66亿元下调至60亿元，以反映更高的对冲亏损，2026至2027财年盈利预测上调8%及9%。该行又预期下半年较高派息比率，意味着2025财年派息比将达115%，目标价从8元上调至9元，评级“中性”。(gc/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-25 16:25。)
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