金吾财讯 | 周大福(01929)早盘股价受压走低，截至发稿，报9.22港元，跌幅4.26%，成交额2843.38万港元。公司公布，截至2025年3月31日止3个月第4财季，零售值按年下跌11.6%，当中，内地跌10.4%，港澳及其他市场跌20.7%，分别占集团零售值的89.6%及10.4%。期内，内地同店销售按年下跌13.2%，港澳同店销售跌22.5%。对此，中金研报指，季内中国内地流水及同店下滑幅度均环比收窄。渠道方面，内地延续渠道质量升级战略，季内净关店395家。（2）港澳及其他市场继续受到市民外游和内地消费者购买行为变化的影响，流水同比-20.7%、同店同比-22.5%，跌幅与上季度类似。不过，考虑金价快速上涨对公司黄金套保的影响，该行下调FY25 EPS预测7%至0.54港币，维持FY26 EPS预测0.76 港币，引入FY27 EPS预测0.83 港币，当前股价对应18/13/12 倍FY25/26/27 年P/E，维持跑赢行业评级。考虑行业销售好转带来估值提升，上调目标价46%至11.41 港币，对应15 倍FY26年P/E，较当前股价有18%的上行空间。
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