金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，广汽集团(02238)1Q25营收超该行此前预测，但毛利率-1.1%较该行预期低约4个百分点。尽管合联营企业投资收益约11亿元符合预期，但销售费用高于预期且政府补助低于预期。该行估算自主品牌1Q25净亏损较该行预测多了约10亿元。尽管市场对广汽1Q25业绩的预期不高，该行认为其7.32亿元的净亏损仍低于预期。该行预计广汽2025年销量走势将延续2024年前低后高的模式，毛利率有望同步改善。去年末启动的降本措施效果或于2025下半年显现。基于减值损失大幅缩减及销管费用削减假设，该行仍预测广汽2025年全年将实现正的净利润。但考虑到埃安面临的挑战，该行将2025年净利润预测下调50%至3.4亿元，同时将埃安2025年销量预测下调4%至38万台。该行维持“买入”评级，港股目标价3.6港元，基于分部估值法：大自主业务2.95港元，基于0.3x FY25E P/S；合联营企业0.65港元，基于3x FY25E P/E。 A股目标价人民币10元，基于当前A/H股溢价约200%。
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