It's been a sad week for LKQ Corporation (NASDAQ:LKQ), who've watched their investment drop 11% to US$37.41 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.5b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$0.65 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, LKQ's nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$14.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.9% to US$2.98. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$14.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.01 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for LKQ

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$52.47, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values LKQ at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$48.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that LKQ's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than LKQ.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that LKQ's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for LKQ going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - LKQ has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.