US natgas prices jump 5% to 1-week high ahead of contract expiration

Reuters
28 Apr
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices jump 5% to 1-week high ahead of contract expiration

U.S. LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April

U.S. gas output on track to hit record high in April

U.S. gas storage about 1% below five-year average

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

April 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Monday in light trade ahead of the expiration of the front-month contract on forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected.

Earlier in the day, prices slid about 2% to a five-month low on rising output and forecasts for mild weather through mid-May that will limit heating and cooling demand, allowing utilities to keep putting more gas than usual into storage.

On its last day as the front month, gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 15.1 cents, or 5.1%, at $3.09 per million British thermal units at 10:06 a.m. EDT (1406 GMT).

Despite the price jump, the front-month remained in technically oversold territory for an eighth day in a row for the first time since February 2024.

The June MGM25 contract, which will soon be the front month, jumped about 6.5% to $3.31 per mmBtu.

One factor pressuring prices in recent weeks has been fast growth in the amount of gas in storage. After falling below normal levels in mid-January, analysts project gas inventories will rise above the five-year average in the next week or two.

After cold weather in January and February boosted demand for gas, the total amount in storage was about 1% below normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

With gas futures down about 33% over the past seven weeks, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for a seventh week in a row to their lowest since January, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day in April from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 13.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 99.2 bcfd this week to 97.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.0 bcfd so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant, under construction in Louisiana.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading near a nine-month low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and at an 11-month low of around $11 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Apr 25 Forecast

Week ended Apr 18 Actual

Year ago Apr 25

Five-year average

Apr 25

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+89

88

+64

+58

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,023

1,934

2,476

2,036

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-0.6%

-2.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.93

2.94

1.79

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.78

10.64

9.11

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.27

11.51

10.06

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

68

76

62

96

197

U.S. GFS CDDs

63

63

72

60

53

U.S. GFS TDDs

131

139

134

156

150

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

107.0

105.7

105.6

99.8

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.3

7.4

7.4

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

114.3

113.0

113.0

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

2.5

2.4

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.9

7.3

7.1

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

15.5

15.7

16.0

12.4

11.8

U.S. Commercial

6.3

6.0

5.9

5.7

11.8

U.S. Residential

7.4

6.9

6.7

6.0

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

30.2

31.2

29.6

33.3

27.5

U.S. Industrial

22.4

22.3

22.4

21.8

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

73.6

73.7

71.9

74.2

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

98.6

99.2

97.4

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

86

85

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

86

85

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

87

86

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 2

Week ended Apr 25

2024

2023

2022

Wind

17

13

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

7

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

36

42

41

38

Coal

14

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.71

2.87

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.17

2.10

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.44

2.44

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.08

2.01

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.36

2.30

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.90

2.10

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.73

2.72

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.96

0.34

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.35

1.36

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

35.00

34.00

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

46.63

48.93

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

22.48

30.05

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

25.66

26.90

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

9.82

9.02

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino. Editing by Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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