By Joe Light

President Donald Trump's tariff war is sharply slowing traffic on a major shipping route between China and the U.S. The pain of a near-standstill in goods shipments could spread from trucking companies to retail shelves in a matter of weeks.

Ocean container bookings from China to the U.S. fell 64% in the first week of April compared with the week earlier, according to logistics data platform Vizion. Overall imports to the U.S. also fell 64%. Categories with the most dramatic drops included imports of apparel, fabrics and other textiles, Vizion said in a blog post.

The rate to ship a 40-foot container between Shanghai and Los Angeles has halved, according to data from Bloomberg, implying little demand for the critical shipping route.

In the past week, cancellations of voyages and port calls have also risen, in what maritime analysis firm Sea-Intelligence called "a dramatic change in the market," in a report on Thursday.

Trump earlier this month raised minimum tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, stoking a trade war with one of America's largest trading partners and the largest global manufacturer of toys, computers, and other products. Though he paused so-called reciprocal tariffs on most other countries, Trump imposed the China levies immediately, citing the country's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. China has raised its tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.

In recent days, Trump and other administration officials have signaled that they view the disruption as temporary. The ultimate China tariff "won't be anywhere near that high," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Tuesday. "It will come down substantially but it won't be zero."

Consumers may soon face empty store shelves if the U.S. and China don't find a way to de-escalate the trade conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday tariffs at these levels are effectively a trade embargo between the two countries, a situation he described as unsustainable.

It will take weeks for the decline in shipping to affect what Americans can find in stores. Ocean freight can take about a month to move from China to the U.S. West Coast -- and closer to two months if the ship is headed for the East Coast. Goods need further time to get from ports, to warehouses, to stores.

Trucking company Knight-Swift Transportation said in its first-quarter earnings call Wednesday it wouldn't give guidance for the third quarter, citing trade policy uncertainty.

"We were expecting a nice seasonal volume rebound in March. However, talks of tariffs and the fluid trade policy spurred more cautious tone among shippers that brought a pause to the momentum in the market," said Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller. Freight customers with high exposure to China have pulled back, he said.

The heads of Walmart, Home Depot and Target met with Trump this week and warned that the trade war could raise prices and empty shelves, with the disruptions beginning to show in a couple of weeks, Axios reported.

The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.

The slowdown in shipping from China may also reflect companies' rush to bring goods into the U.S. ahead of tariffs. Several regional Federal Reserve Banks this week reported strong cargo activity in March and early April as companies stocked up on inventory ahead of the tariffs. That may lessen the blow of tariffs on consumers.

But if the administration doesn't quickly strike a deal with China, Covid-19 style supply-chain snarls could be on the way some company executives warn.

"Companies stocked up on inventory in anticipation of April 2nd, so it will take a while before shortages hit. If Trump reverses course very soon, he can head off the worst of this catastrophe. But everyday it gets [worse]," wrote Ryan Petersen, CEO of supply-chain logistics company Flexport on X.

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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April 24, 2025 15:34 ET (19:34 GMT)

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