金吾财讯 | 华泰证券对3月工业企业利润数据点评，今年3月的工业企业盈利增速较1-2月的-0.3%回升至2.6%，部分受财政支出扩张以及“抢出口”效应的提振。总体而言，4月以来政府债发行保持同比多增，财政政策或对企业盈利形成托举，但“对等关税”落地后对美出口有较大影响，中美之间贸易额的收缩可能会对包括全球贸易需求、供应链、就业在内的一些的预期均带来一定压力，亦对工业企业盈利形成一定扰动，稳外贸、稳内需政策进一步加码的必要性或有提升。往前看，考虑到今年政府债发行较为前置，3月以来高频数据显示部分基建及投资活动有所加速，或有望推动3月企业盈利改善。考虑到今年关税政策面临较大不确定性，出口中远期或有所承压，工业企业盈利持续回升仍需内需及价格指标延续改善。此外，促消费等逆周期调整政策力度、以及地产市场是否能够企稳回升，均对内需改善延续有重要影响。
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