Donald Trump is presiding over the worst stock market during a president’s first 100 days since Richard Nixon’s abbreviated second term. But what happens next?

Historically, weak performance in the first 100 days isn’t a great sign.

Through April 28, the S&P 500 was down 7.8% since Trump’s inauguration. April 29 will be the 100th day of Trump’s presidency. The last time the stock market performed this poorly was under Nixon in 1973 when the S&P 500 tumbled nearly 10% in his first 100 days.

History indicates that investors should expect an overall gain in stocks for the rest of Trump’s term. But market returns have been lower when stocks were down in a president’s first 100 days than when stocks were up in the first few months.

Going back to 1897, during the 12 times that markets were down in a president’s first 100 days, the average total return during a four-year term was 12%. In the 20 instances when markets were up in the first 100 days, the total return averaged 44%.

Some of the poor performance reflects especially tough times for global markets. Franklin Delano Roosevelt presided over the Great Depression and World War II. Under George W. Bush, markets faced a hangover from the dot-com bust of the 1990s, the 9/11 attacks, and Iraq war in his first term; in his second term starting in 2005, stocks rebounded for a while and then tanked during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08.

But even without distortions like the Great Depression and World War II, stocks have gone on to perform relatively poorly after a bad stretch in the first 100 days. Going back to 1949, during the seven times that markets were down in a president’s first 100 days, the average total return during their four-year term was 20.6%. When markets were up in the first 100 days, the total return averaged 53%.

The S&P 500 performed better in presidential terms when the first 100 days were positive.

Markets have recovered after a slow start in many instances. The S&P 500 slid more than 5% during President Eisenhower’s first 100 days in 1953 and went on to gain 72% through January 1957. Stocks fell 1% during the first 100 days of President Reagan’s first term in 1981 but gained 27.5% in his first administration.

Even Jimmy Carter—who presided over the stagflation of the 1970s—wasn’t so bad for stocks. While the S&P 500 fell 5% in his first 100 days, it ended up with a total gain of 29% by the time he left office.

Trump, of course, has history in the Oval Office. The S&P 500 gained more than 5% at the start of his first term and rose 68% through January 2021—despite the brief Covid-induced bear market in 2020.

Th big debate now is whether Trump 2.0 is a game changer for global markets and the economy. He certainly has Wall Street worried. Earnings estimates are falling, inflation expectations are rising, and the bond market is on edge over tariffs raising prices and triggering another bout of stagflation (a mix of rising prices and slow economic growth).

“CEOs are a really unhappy bunch. Things are in suspended animation,” said Steve Purdy, co-head of global credit for bond firm TCW at a recent event in New York. “They’re not sure if in six months there will be a new world order or if this was just a really bad dream. You just can’t make decisions.”

Trump’s trade war could also upset the calculus for the Federal Reserve. Even if the economy weakens, the Fed may have less wiggle room to cut rates due to inflationary pressures. 

But Trump has indicated he can be swayed by market pressure, backing off his more extreme tariff measures after a selloff following his “Liberation Day” announcement. Some analysts argue the market will recover as his White House begins to focus more on deregulation efforts, extending tax cuts and other economic stimulus. 

“The market may not be pricing in the possibility of trade policies being less hawkish and the potential for tax reform and deregulation–the original reasons for market excitement and bullish sentiment after the election,” said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

Keep the bond market in mind too; rising yields would be a headwind for the stock market, especially if they increase because of a structural shift away from the dollar and U.S. assets broadly. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked after Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. Yields have since declined in hopes of forthcoming trade deals.

“It certainly seems that the Trump ‘put,’ instead of being on the S&P 500, is on the 10-year staying below the 4.5% mark,” said John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors.

The bond market’s referendum on Trump’s first 100 days may be more indicative than the stock market’s. If there’s one thing we know from history it’s that higher yields almost certainly spell trouble for stocks.