近期市场热议若特朗普当选对我国潜在的关税扰动。基准情形下若美方取消最惠国待遇，将中国进口产品平均税率从19%增加到32%，简单线性外推测算中国对美出口增速受拖累程度或在8-10%，悲观假设下若美对华关税抬升至60%，我国对美出口增速受拖累程度或在20-30%，我国整体出口增速受拖累程度或在4-6%。结构上来看，参考特朗普第一任期情况，贸易政策或对我国电子设备、通用机械设备、通信设备以及家具等轻工业...
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