金吾财讯 | 申万宏源表示，过去3年我国房地产经历了深度调整，而过程中放松政策效果有限，该行认为核心问题不在于需求不足，而在于居民资产负债表走弱，9月“止跌回稳”和12月“稳住楼市股市”的连续表态明确了修复居民资产负债表的政策思路，也呈现了强于以往的政策有效性，政策进入到有的放矢的轨道，预计后续将有更积极有为的政策推出，预计行业有望筑底。考虑到中期需求有支撑、但短期供给有约束，该行预计明年总量仍偏弱、但结构强弹性，其中一二线城市有望供需逆转、并展现出强弹性，优质房企有望复制煤炭供给侧改革逻辑、并迎来量质双升。该行维持房地产及物管“看好”评级，推荐：1）产品力房企：滨江集团、华润置地(01109)、保利发展、中海外发展(00688)、招商蛇口、建发国际(01908)，关注绿城中国(03900)；2）低估值修复房企：新城控股、建发股份、越秀地产(00123)、龙湖集团(00960)，关注金地集团、新城发展(01030)、保利置业(00119)；3）收储及城改受益房企：越秀地产、华发股份，关注城投控股、城建发展；4）二手房中介：关注贝壳(02423)、我爱我家；5）物业管理：华润万象(01209)、招商积余、中海物业(02669)、绿城服务(02869)、保利物业(06049)，关注新城悦服务(01755)。
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