金吾财讯 | 国证国际发报指，展望2025年，随着美联储开启降息周期、叠加AH高溢价率下港股性价比凸显，港股流动性趋于改善。对于医药板块， 在“医保+商保”模式不断推进、政策支持等因素驱动下，行业规模有望进一步扩大。该行看好创新、出海和顺应政策发展的三大投资主线：
1、创新：对利率敏感的创新药和器械有望随着流动性改善持续受益。该行认为驱动创新药2025年发展的主要因素如下：（1）出海。由于中美定价差异大，企业可通过license out不断打开市场天花板。（2）国家及地方政府相继出台政策鼓励创新药发展。（3）通过医保谈判、集采不断腾笼换鸟推动创新药发展。（4）“医保+商保”模式打开健康险空间，创新药发展空间更大。另外，该行还看好减肥药GLP-1产业链等新兴赛道的成长。2、出海：创新药企和医疗器械公司有望通过出海不断打开市场天花板。3、顺应政策发展：受益于政策刺激和消费复苏，消费医疗和医美板块有望恢复增长。该行建议关注内生外延稳定推进、具有差异化专业特色、估值低的消费医疗标的和具有产品力、品牌力、营销优势的美妆标的。
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