金吾财讯 | 内险股受压，截至发稿，新华保险(01336)跌4.82%，中国人寿(02628)跌4.67%，中国太平(00966)跌4.34%，中国平安(02318)跌4.21%，中国太保(02601)跌4.18%。消息面上，据媒体引述一位业内人士示，新备案的普通型保险产品预定利率上限预计从2.5%降至2%；新备案的分红型保险产品预定利率上限预计从2%下调为1.5%；新备案的万能型保险产品最低保证利率上限预计从1.5%降至1%。业内人士指出，人身保险预定利率下调与长端利率下行趋势相适应，有助于缓解“利差损”风险，建立与市场利率挂钩的动态调整机制，以进一步提高预定利率的调整效率和及时性，提升险企资产负债匹配水平。摩根大通表示，内险股去年表现跑赢大市，惟今年受到明显的宏观不利因素影响，令该行业吸引力下降。此外，中国10年期国债收益率已跌至1.6%的历史低位，这是快速且大幅地下跌。由于保险业务的长尾性质，预计潜在的宏观不利因素将逐步而非大幅反映于财务状况。然而，该行关注偿付能力资本容量的中期风险，这可能导致股息压力、业务增长放缓及资产负债管理(ALM)恶化。因此，该行认为估值倍数有收缩的机会。
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