金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2024年各煤种价格继续下跌，平均降幅在14%，无烟煤价格跌幅最大。该行预计2024年样本上市公司净利润同比下滑20%，但股息率或仍有吸引力。该行预计2025年行业供给或更为宽松，煤价中枢有下移压力。该行预计秦港5500大卡动力煤市场价格中枢或在820元/吨，同比降幅约4%，全年低点或出现在Q2；预计焦煤全年均价或在1650元/吨，同比下降约12%，或弱于动力煤。但该行也认为，煤价仍有初步的成本支撑，主要是澳洲高卡煤的进口成本、新疆煤外运至华中和宁夏地区的成本线，预计年内煤价底部或在700元/吨以上。
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