金吾财讯 | 乳业股集体回暖，截至发稿，澳亚集团(02425)涨7.37%，优然牧业(09858)涨6.49%，现代牧业(01117)张3.61%，中国飞鹤(06186)涨3.11%，蒙牛乳业(02319)跟涨。消息面上，高盛表示，2024年中国新生儿数量达954万，同比增长6%，高于高盛预期和联合国预测，恢复至2022年水平，扭转2017年以来的连续下降趋势，主要得益于疫情后经济复苏超预期和龙年效应。在基本情景下，预计到2035年新生儿数量相对稳定；牛市情景假设2035年总和生育率达1.4，基本情景为1.2，熊市情景为1.0。对于2025年，受结婚登记数量下降和生肖年份影响，基本/熊市情景下预计头胎和二胎生育率环比下降，不同情景下2025年新生儿数量预测值分别为960万、930万、920万。
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