金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示，集运行业近五年两轮高景气均由事件性主导。集运公司盈利中枢显着上升，高分红低估值成就高股息。未来集运景气趋势取决于出口与运力消化。集运联盟在运力消化中作用关键，未来联盟重组或将影响运力消化能力。维持油运增持评级，关注地缘局势提供的需求意外与逆向时机。原油油运方面，影子船队制裁趋严，助力油运景气回升。重申原油增产将利好油运，未来供需将好于预期，且具油价下跌期权。成品油运方面，全球炼厂东移持续，成品油运需求将继续增长，有望对冲供给交付压力，预计景气持续或超市场预期。该行指，过去三年，地缘局势持续影响航运业，驱动贸易结构变化与航运需求意外。2024下半年，亦导致油运经历压力测试。2025年以来，影子船队制裁趋严，助力油运景气回升。未来地缘局势演绎或分化，有望提供需求意外与逆向时机。
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