Boston Beer (SAM) is likely to deliver another quarter of "soft volume performance" in Q4, largely due to broader category pressure in the beer business, RBC Capital Markets said in an earnings preview Friday.

According to the firm, category softness is weighing on the company's Twisted Tea brand, which continues to grow but at a slowing pace.

Meanwhile, the Truly brand is still losing share in the hard seltzer category and "materially underperforming" White Claw, though its sequential volume trends have improved. RBC also noted that while Sun Cruiser is "doing well," it is not yet significant enough to drive "meaningful upside at this point."

The firm views the risk-to-reward heading into the company's Q4 earnings as negative, citing sluggish topline trends that will likely pressure numbers through the first half of 2025.

"[Boston Beer] is still small enough to gain share in a difficult category but at this point we are not expecting anything material," according to the note.

For 2025, the firm projects "modest" volume growth in a range of negative low single digits to positive low single digits, with 1-2% pricing growth on the topline.

RBC has a sector perform rating on the stock with a price target of $295.

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