金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，2024年四季度全社会用电量增速为3.5%，相比23年同期降低6.6pct；一产/二产/三产/城乡居民生活用电分别拉动全社会用电量同比增加0.1%/1.9%/1.0%/0.5%，相比23年同期+0.0/-4.7/-2.1/+0.1pct。24年四季度用电增速减缓主要系1）二产用电量增速受传统高耗能行业所拖累，其中水泥需求遇冷减产，钢铁盈利承压开工率走低，导致建材和黑色金属行业用电显著负增长；2）暖冬导致三产增速收窄。展望2025/26年，该行预计基准情形下全国电力需求增速5.5%/6.5%（vs 2024：6.8%），呈现出前低后高的局面。其中，2025年部分制造业如光伏、钢铁等在需求和产能调整的压力下，短期或拖累电力增速0.6/0.1pct。而增量方面，随AI数据中心投产自2H25开始加速，对2025/26年电力需求增速有望拉动0.5/1.0pct。
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