金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，百济神州(06160)核心产品快速放量，泽布替尼美国新患份额跃居第一：4Q24销售收入11.18亿美元（同比+77%），包括：1）泽布替尼8.28亿美元（环比+20%），其中美国4Q24销售6.16亿美元（环比+22%），受益于泽布替尼4Q24新患份额超过阿卡替尼至全美第一。欧洲4Q24销售收入1.13亿美元（同比+16%）。2）替雷利珠单抗4Q24销售1.54亿美元（环比+21%）。全年经调整经营利润转正至4,536万美元。公司指引2025全年收入49-53亿美元，GAAP经营费用41-44亿美元，毛利率在80-90%的中位区间，GAAP经营利润和经营活动现金流为正。该行指，公司后续管线快速推进，巨大价值逐步兑现：血液瘤领域关注：1）sonrotoclax II期数据读出（2H25）及潜在加速上市申请递交；2）BTK CDAC年内启动两项III期。实体瘤领域关注：1）PD-1一线多适应症在欧美/日本等市场获批；2）HER2双抗、DLL3单抗、TIGIT等品种III期数据读出。该行上调2025/26年收入预测至51亿/62亿美元、泽布替尼全球峰值销售预测至69亿美元。上调美股/港股/A股目标价至348.00美元/208.80港元/289.22元人民币，维持买入评级。
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