By Joe Hoppe

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of March 10-14 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is more bullish as the U.S. backtracks on some tariffs and the U.S. dollar weakens.

Back-and-forth tariff headlines and other macroeconomic volatility saw the greenback slump against other commodity currencies including the Brazilian real, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, Peak Trading analysts said in a note. A weaker dollar is a tailwind for agricultural markets as it becomes less expensive for international buyers to purchase dollar-denominated commodities.

Hedge funds have been pulled in different directions over the prior week on tariffs. Funds had been firmly bearish about the expected effects of President Trump's tariffs on agricultural prices, embarking on massive selling in last week's commitment of traders report, before buying back some agricultural futures toward the end of the week as Trump said he would delay some Canadian and Mexican tariffs.

This week will see the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday and Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Agricultural traders will want to see a softer inflation print, which would raise optimism around the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy and further weakening the dollar.

South American weather is good overall but shows a few areas of concern, with parts of Brazil turning drier. Western Brazil will see rainfall this week but regular rains will be needed over the coming months to support corn yields, Peak Trading said. Argentina continues to battle heavy rainfall and flooding.

Turning to the U.S., drought conditions are expanding and subsoil moisture is low as early planting season approaches. Forecasts are dry across the western corn belt.

The most recent U.S. export sales data was in line with expectations, though this data was for the week before the U.S. announced fresh tariffs.

Chicago wheat futures are up 2.5% at $5.65 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.6% on $4.72 a bushel. Soybean prices are down 0.85% at $10.16 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have had a mixed performance over the past week, with cocoa and sugar gaining and coffee slipping.

Cocoa prices sit higher on week in thin, volatile trading. Market participants have continued to exit holdings on improved harvest expectations and higher certified stocks, as well as better weather forecasts, Rabobank analysts said in note. That said, both cocoa and coffee still sit at historically elevated prices on persistent supply concerns.

Trump said on March 2 that agricultural imports to the U.S. will incur tariffs from April 2. This potentially leaves sugar and coffee imports from Brazil exposed, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Friday that food-based import taxes would be removed to fight inflation, simultaneously eliminating the risk of incurring reciprocal U.S. import taxes, JPM said. Brazil supplies around 25% of U.S. coffee imports as well as sizeable sugar and beef imports, among others.

On Monday, cocoa is down 1.1% at $8,380 a metric ton, while coffee is down 0.3% at $3.83 a pound. Sugar is up 2.9% at $0.19 a pound.

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 10, 2025 13:20 ET (17:20 GMT)

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