美银发表报告,重申对泡泡玛特“买入”评级,目标价200港元,认为关税战对其影响有限,因公司具强大定价能力、对经济衰退的防御能力、全球生产转移且供应链多元化,以及全球化策略。在市场波动中,该股具备较高确定性和防御性。
报告指,由于关税按离岸价征收,加上泡泡玛特于美国市场毛利率预计超过75%,该行估计约20%的零售价上涨可抵销超过100%的关税上涨幅度。近期美国市场玩具公仔价格已从16.99美元上调至18.99美元,显示其定价能力。同时,日本IP产业经验表明,宏观经济下行时,消费者倾向购买价格亲民的“多巴胺消费”产品以寻求情感慰藉。
另外,报告指,泡泡玛特已于2024年将10%的生产从中国转移至越南,并计划于2025年进一步扩展至东南亚和墨西哥。这一供应链多元化策略降低关税风险,同时支持其全球扩张。
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