BigBear.ai Holdings, an AI-powered decision intelligence solutions provider, saw its shares fall 14.8% in premarket trading Friday after reporting fourth quarter earnings that missed analyst expectations and issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for 2025.

The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $43.8 million, up 8% YoY but below the analyst consensus of $53.84 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at -$0.43, missing estimates of -$0.06.

For the full year 2025, BigBear.ai expects revenue between $160 million and $180 million, falling short of the $193.9 million analysts were projecting. The company also forecasts negative single-digit millions in adjusted EBITDA for 2025.

Despite the earnings miss, BigBear.ai highlighted some positive developments. Gross margin improved to 37.4% in Q4 2024 from 32.1% in Q4 2023. The company also reported ending backlog of $418 million as of December 31, 2024, up 2.5x from the prior year.

"2024 was a pivotal year for the business. We demonstrated momentum through major contract wins, expanding our backlog and growing our pipeline, maturing our technology portfolio, and restructuring our debt to strengthen our financial position for the long term," said CEO Kevin McAleenan.

CFO Julie Peffer noted the company has significantly deleveraged its balance sheet early in Q1 2025 through warrant exercises and debt conversions, reducing net debt from $150 million to $27 million since the end of Q4.

BigBear.ai cautioned that a potential U.S. government shutdown or shift in national security priorities could impact its 2025 outlook.