JPMorgan warns estimate could be even higher if fires spread
Blazes seem headed for the most costly in California history
The potential cost for insurers of the devastation caused by the Los Angeles wildfires is now expected to surpass $20 billion, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., doubling their estimate from just a day before.
In a note to clients Thursday, analysts led by Jimmy Bhullar warned that the total insured losses could rise further if the fires are not controlled and devastation keeps spreading. On Wednesday, they said they saw losses for the insurance industry approaching $10 billion.
The estimate makes this week’s fire potentially costlier than the 2018 Butte County Camp wildfire. With roughly $10 billion of insured losses, it was the biggest fire event for the industry in California’s history until now.
At least five people died and more than 29,000 acres burned in the Los Angeles area after three days of wildfires that engulfed entire parts of the city. The main blazes in Pacific Palisades and Pasadena remained uncontrolled as of late Thursday, while firefighters managed to fully contain the fire that threatened Hollywood.
The total damage and economic losses — which account for uninsured destruction and indirect economic impact such as lost wages and supply-chain disruptions — will land somewhere between $52 billion and $57 billion, according to a preliminary estimate from Accuweather Inc.
The wildfires add pressure to California’s home insurance market, which has faced a growing crisis in recent years. Traditional insurers have pulled back from the state, blaming the rising cost of natural catastrophes and stringent pricing regulations.
This led homeowners to flock to California’s FAIR Plan, the state’s last-resort insurer, whose president said last year it wasn’t financially prepared to cover the costs of a major catastrophe.
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