2025 年指引

- BP 预计，相较 2024 年，报告的上游产量将下降，基础上游产量将略有下降。其中，BP 预计石油生产和运营的基础产量基本保持稳定，天然气和低碳能源的产量将下降。

- 在客户业务中，BP 预计其客户业务将增长，包括 BP 生物能源的全年贡献及部分受美国货运衰退后的部分恢复支持下，TravelCenters of America 的更高贡献。收入增长预计受结构性成本降低的支持。BP 继续预计燃料利润率将对供应成本保持敏感，收入实现对美元的相对强势仍然敏感。

- 在产品方面，BP 预计 2025 年相较 2024 年炼油利润率基本持平，并且基础表现更强劲，因为惠廷炼油厂没有发生全厂电力中断，且整个产品组合的改进计划发挥作用。BP 预计类似水平的炼油厂大修活动，大修活动的时间分布在 2025 年的前半年，第二季度影响最大。

- BP 预计其他业务和公司的基础年度费用约为 10 亿美元，季度费用可能有所波动。

- BP 预计 2025 年折旧、耗减和摊销与 2024 年相比基本保持不变。

- BP 预计 2025 年的基础有效税率（ETR）约为 40%，但它对环境价格波动及其对集团利润和亏损地理分布的影响等多种因素非常敏感。

- BP 预计，2025 年的资产出售和其他收益约为 30 亿美元，并在下半年权重较大。自 2020 年第二季度以来，BP 实现了 220 亿美元的资产出售和其他收益，BP 继续预计 2020 年下半年至 2025 年间的资产出售和其他收益将达到 250 亿美元。

- BP 预计，2025 年的墨西哥湾和解支付总额约为 12 亿美元，税前支付总额包括第二季度支付的 11 亿美元。

2025 guidance 

• bp expects reported upstream* production to be lower and underlying upstream production* to be slightly lower compared with 2024. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower. 

• In its customers business, bp expects growth in its customers businesses including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy and a higher contribution from TravelCenters of America in part supported by a partial recovery from the US freight recession. Earnings growth is expected to be supported by structural cost reduction. bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply and earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative strength of the US dollar. 

• In products, bp expects broadly flat refining margins relative to 2024 and stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery, and improvement plans across the portfolio. bp expects similar levels of refinery turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards the first half, with the highest impact in the second quarter. 

• bp expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2025. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter. 

• bp expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be broadly flat compared with 2024. 

• bp expects the underlying ETR* for 2025 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses. 

• bp expects divestment and other proceeds to be around $3 billion in 2025 weighted towards the second half. Having realized $22.0 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025. 

• bp expects Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter.