U.S. Stocks Extend Fall After Consumer Sentiment Falls to Lowest Since November 2022 as Labor Market Optimism Continues to Fade

Tiger Newspress
03-28

U.S. Stocks extended fall; Nasdaq down 2%; S&P 500 down 1.4%; Dow down 1.2%.

Americans continue to feel pessimistic about the US economy.

New data from the University of Michigan out Friday showed consumer sentiment in March reached the lowest level since November 2022, with worries over inflation and expectations for the US economy dragging down the reading.

The headline index of consumer sentiment hit 57 in March, down from a preliminary read of 57.9 reported two weeks ago and the lowest since a 56.9 reading in November 2022.

An index measuring consumer expectations for the economy fell to 52.6, down from a prior reading of 54.2 and showing a further deterioration in consumers' outlook for the economy.

Friday's report from the University of Michigan also showed a particular worry from consumers about the labor market, with two-thirds of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009.

Joanne Hsu, director for the survey of consumers, said in a statement that the labor market "trend reveals a key vulnerability for consumers, given that strong labor markets and incomes have been the primary source of strength supporting consumer spending in recent years."

In February, the US economy added 151,000 jobs while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%.

Still, some economists have argued this headline data is flattering the state of the US labor market. In a note to clients published earlier this week, Neil Dutta, an economist at Renaissance Macro, wrote that "the US labor market continues to deteriorate with conditions worsening at the margin." He noted weekly job postings and workers quitting are both falling, a sign of less demand for labor and less confidence among those with jobs.

Expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 5% in March, the highest since November 2022 and up from 4.3% last month. For year-ahead expectations, all three political affiliations — Democrats, Republicans, and Independents — saw inflation moving higher.

Longer-run inflation expectations, however, were driven by politics, Hsu noted.

"Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 4.1% in March, reflecting from a large surge among independents plus a sizable rise among Republicans," Hsu said.

"Here, as is the case for other measures from the Surveys of Consumers, aggregate trends are driven by and align closely with the views of independents, and thus are not being swung by polarization across the two major parties," Hsu added.

Earlier this week, The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a four-year low while expectations for the economy from consumers polled for that survey reached a 12-year low.

"One of the most significant developments that we have seen was a decline in financial situation expectations from consumers," Yelena Shulyatyeva, Conference Board senior US economist, told Yahoo Finance.

"So that seems to suggest that all this uncertainty around economic outlook is really starting to weigh on consumers' assessment of how they will fare going forward."

The University of Michigan's sentiment report also comes after new inflation data Friday morning showed prices rose more than forecast in February — the latest sign that the Federal Reserve continues to make halting progress toward its 2% inflation goal.

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