Summary

• Quantum stocks are highly volatile, making them risky for most investors, despite potential high returns for those who can time trade effectively.

• Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang's mixed messages on quantum computing have caused significant stock price fluctuations, but the upcoming Quantum Day could drive further excitement.

• Rigetti Computing, Inc. offers the highest return potential among quantum stocks, but its high short interest and weaker balance sheet make it a risky investment.

• For long-term exposure, consider the Defiance Quantum ETF or large tech companies like Google and IBM, while RGTI stock is best for short-term gains with a well-planned strategy.

Thesis Summary

The quantum trade continues to be alive and well, making money for both shorts and longs, (if you know how to time it).

However, with quantum stocks posting over double-digit moves every other day, this might not be the right investment for most people.

Quantum stocks dropped precipitously after Jensen said the technology is still at least a decade away from being useful.

But quantum stocks staged a comeback on Tuesday after Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) announced it would be hosting Quantum Day.

But was Jensen right about quantum technology? Is this dip worth buying? And if so, what’s the best stock to own and/or trade?

Rigetti Computing, Inc., the first quantum stock I covered, continues to offer the highest return potential, but it’s also very risky.

Jensen Disses Quantum, Then Announces Quantum Day

The Nvidia CEO has been at the center of numerous headlines in the last week. Jensen’s keynote speech at CES in Las Vegas gave analysts and investors a lot to talk about. Not only did he unveil numerous exciting advances and new products from Nvidia, but the CEO also took the time to address the next hot thing after AI; quantum computing.

Very useful quantum computers are still a few decades away

Source: Jensen Huang, Observer.

That pretty much sums up his message perfectly. An idea that was even later echoed by Meta Platforms' (META) CEO, Mark Zuckerberg:

I’m not really an expert on quantum computing, but my understanding is that it’s still quite a ways off from being a truly practical paradigm,

Source: Mark Zuckerberg, Benzinga.

But the quantum dip did not last long, and most quantum stocks bounced back on Tuesday, following Nvidia’s announcement that it would be hosting a Quantum day.

QTUM Price And Events

Almost to the hour, the announcement by Jensen marked the top, and then the announcement of Quantum Day marked the bottom.

What Can We Expect At Quantum Day?

So what is Quantum Day? As far as we know, Jensen Huang will be speaking with some main players in the quantum industry at GTC 2025 on Thursday, the 20th of March.

According to the company’s release, this will include sessions discussing the current state and future of quantum, a developer day, outlining how patterns are working with Nvidia to move the industry forward, educational sessions, and a Quantum Day special address.

The timing of this announcement is definitely interesting, as it shortly followed the not so positive comments Jensen made at CES, but I am not surprised.

As I wrote about in my first quantum related article, where I discussed Alphabet’s (GOOG) (GOOGL) breakthrough in quantum computing, AI and quantum computing should one day be intimately related.

It will, in fact, be up to quantum computing to provide the necessary hardware to take AI to the next level. Nvidia showed at CES that it continues to be at the forefront of AI innovation, and I’m therefore not surprised that the company is hosting a quantum day.

Rigetti Has The Most Upside, But I’d Only Trade It

So for those looking to buy the quantum dip, what’s the best way to go about it?

Well, the best way will depend on each person’s approach to investing. I will discuss below what I see as the option with the most upside, and then also briefly talk about the best quantum investment.

The stock with the most potential is, of course, Rigetti. This can be argued first and foremost due to recent price action and technical outlook.

RGTI and peers price action (Tradingview)

Since quantum stocks began to take off in December, RGTI has performed the best, up at one point over 700%.

One of the reasons for this is very likely the amount of short interest.

Risk Metrics (SA)

Rigetti has a 16.01% short interest, which is on the high end, surpassed only by D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)

Both RGTI and QBTS have weaker balance sheets than IonQ (IONQ) and Quantum Computing (QUBT), so this could perhaps be the reason there’s more shorting.

Moreover, we could also argue that RGTI has some more enticing upcoming catalysts. According to their roadmap, the company expects to develop a 100-qubit computer by the end of the year.

The company plans to introduce a new modular system architecture in 2025, to release a 36-qubit system by mid-year and a system with over 100 qubits by the end of 2025.

Source: Quantumzeitgeist.

When To Buy And Sell RGTI (Technical Analysis)

Let’s take a look at the chart.

RGTI TA (Trendspider)

I’d consider what we are seeing here like a pretty clear five-wave impulse per Elliott Wave Theory, and I believe that we still have one more high left in a wave 5.

Let’s remember that in Elliott Wave, each wave also marks a different stage in the market cycle, marked by the changing psychology of traders.

In wave 4, where we are now, the early investors begin to take profits. Then, we get a final wave 5, where the investment becomes mainstream, and optimism reaches a fever pitch.

However, this is where the latecomers become the exit liquidity for those early investors.

With the Nvidia event happening on March 25th, there’s certainly room for some further excitement around quantum and new highs.

In terms of buying, we may have already bottomed in wave 4, after closing in on the 0.236 fib level. There’s definitely a lot of support at $2-3 with the 200 EMA and some previous volume, but I fear if we go that deep, the momentum will die.

RGTI PT (Trendspider)

Ideally, we go up from here, and perhaps re-test the recent lows at $6. Based on the inverse of the wave 4, which we find by measuring from the top of wave 3 to the bottom of wave 4, we could project the next wave 5 to reach the 1.618 ext, just above $31.

Closing Remarks

But quantum investing continues to be very risky, and even the CEO of Rigetti recently came out to tamper expectations.

Particularly because of the hype that is going on in the quantum computing space and some erroneous statements are being made, including by people in the industry, we have to tamp down some expectations

Source: Kulkarni, Yahoo Finance.

Personally, I would suggest those interested in gaining long-term exposure, get some by purchasing the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM), which I covered recently. Alternatively, large tech companies like Google and IBM (IBM) are also working on thesis technology.

I advise caution, but for those looking to make money fast, Rigetti is the way to go. Just keep in mind the different support and resistance levels and plan your strategy accordingly.