BUZZ-Barclays sees decent Q4 with seasonality tailwinds for European miners

Reuters
2024-10-16

** Barclays says European miners could have a decent Q4 with seasonality tailwinds, near-term support for base metals from potential China stimulus and global rate cuts

** Any benefits from Chinese stimulus are likely to be felt in a (modest) acceleration in base metals demand from accelerating the equipment/appliance upgrading program, with steel & iron ore demand largely unchanged, it says

** Global central banks moving to an easing cycle should benefit the mining sector via restocking, recovering construction activity and a weaker USD, it adds

** The broker points out that copper, aluminium and metallurgical coal are supported by supply side constraints, while it sees the gold bull market set to continue as real yields decline

** Barclays notes the U.S. election outcome could be a negative catalyst if it results in a step-change in China tariffs, as seen during Donald Trump's presidency in 2018

** It downgrades Boliden to "underweight" from "overweight" on M&A and project delivery risk, headwinds from zinc and copper treatment charge and refining charge contract settlements into 2025, among others

** Its preferred "overweight"-rated names are Glencore , Anglo American

, and Norsk Hydro

** Among precious metals, it highlights Endeavour Mining and Hochschild Mining , citing their spot FCF yields

COMPANY RATING OLD RATING PT OLD PT

Anglo American overweight n/a GBP 26.00 GBP 27.40

Antofagasta underweight n/a GBP 15.50 GBP 16.00

BHP equal-weight n/a GBP 24.00 GBP 25.50

Boliden overweight underweight SEK 300.00 SEK 365.00

Endeavour Mining overweight n/a GBP 24.00 GBP 29.00

Ferrexpo equal-weight n/a GBP 100 GBP 100

First Quantum Minerals equal-weight n/a CAD 17.00 CAD 18.00

Fresnillo equal-weight n/a GBP 800 GBP 685

Glencore overweight n/a GBP 485 GBP 520

Hochschild Mining overweight n/a GBP 240 GBP 205

Norsk Hydro overweight n/a NOK 87.00 NOK 89.00

Petra Diamonds equal-weight n/a GBP 0.39 GBP 0.39

Rio Tinto overweight n/a GBP 57.00 GBP 62.50

South32 overweight n/a GBP 2.05 GBP 2.00

Vale overweight n/a $16.00 $17.00

(Reporting by Marta Frąckowiak)

((marta.frackowiak@thomsonreuters.com))

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