Retail FOMO Goes Missing as Bitcoin Pushes Closer to Its Record

Blockhead
2024-10-18

(Bloomberg) -- Retail traders are still mostly on the sidelines when it comes to Bitcoin, even as institutional demand pushes the original cryptocurrency closer toward a record high. This may indicate that the market force known as fear of missing out, or FOMO, has yet to set in among individual investors.

While Bitcoin was trading little changed on Thursday above $67,000, a rally over the past week has left the token less than 9% shy of its record high of $73,797 set in March. 

While there are “early signs of revitalizing conditions in the institutional side of the market,” the same has yet to be seen on the retail front, according to Vetle Lunde, the head of research at K33 Research. 

For one thing, the so-called The Kimchi premium — the price gap in Bitcoin between South Korean and global exchanges — has turned negative. That’s a sign of tepid retail activity among Koreans. 

“This inversion is rare, with the Korean market typically seeing substantial premiums due to steady high retail demand and strict capital controls, leading the premium to stay present,” Lunde wrote.

The recent rally in the crypto market comes after US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president in November’s election, pledged to support a regulatory framework for the industry. That has sparked hopes for a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach in the US following a crackdown under President Joe Biden. Donald Trump, her opponent, has more firmly embraced the digital-asset industry. 

Bitcoin is up about 13% in the past week amid strong demand for US exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the asset, as well as renewed interest from institutional investors in the derivatives market.

Investors this month have poured about $1.4 billion into US spot-Bitcoin ETFs. In the derivatives market, the number of outstanding contracts, or open interest, in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market reached a fresh peak, standing at 35,949 on Wednesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While the percentage of retail longs in Bitcoin is still at low levels, at less than 40% of Binance accounts, their shift from short to bullish positions may be a bearish signal since individual traders tend to be on the wrong side of the market, according to Shubh Varma, chief executive of crypto analytics platform Hyblock Capital.  

“If this trend follows its usual pattern, we could soon see a correction designed to catch retail traders off guard once again,” he added.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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