FACTBOX-What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets

Reuters
2024-10-25
FACTBOX-What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets

Updates with global GDP forecast from Citigroup; U.S., global, euro area, India GDP forecasts from UBS Global Research; Goldman Sachs' India GDP forecast and HSBC's S&P 500 year-end forecast

Oct 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an oversized 50 basis points in its Sept. 17-18 meeting that Chair Jerome Powell said was meant to show policymakers' commitment to sustaining a low unemployment rate now that inflation had eased.

Fed policymakers also projected the benchmark interest rate would fall by another half percentage point by the end of this year, a full percentage point next year, and half a percentage point in 2026, though they cautioned that the outlook that far into the future was inherently uncertain.

Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds

S&P 500 target

US 10-year yield target

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CNY

Goldman Sachs

6,000

3.85%

1.08

150

7.20

Morgan Stanley

5,400(for June 2025)

1

140

7.5

UBS Global Wealth Management*

5,200

3.85%

1.09

148

7.20

Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII)

6,200-6,400 (year-end 2025)

3.75%-4.25%

1.06-1.10

156-160

Barclays

5,600

4.25%

1.09

145

7.20

J.P.Morgan

4,200

3.55%

1.13

146

7.25

BofA Global Research

5,400

3.50%

1.12

151

7.30

Deutsche Bank

5,750

3.80%

1.07

135

Citigroup

5,600

4.20%

1.08

141

7.20

HSBC

5,900

3.00%

1.05

145

7.10

Oppenheimer

5,900

UBS Global Research*

5,850

4.0%

1.12

145

6.95

Evercore ISI

6,000

RBC

5,700

-----

U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again in November.

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

Headline CPI

Core PCE

Goldman Sachs

2.6%

2.6%

Morgan Stanley

2.10%

2.70%

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

3.0%

2.60%

Barclays

2.9%

2.6%

J.P.Morgan

2.50%

2.50%

BofA Global Research

3.5%

2.8%

Deutsche Bank

3.10%

Citigroup

2.0%

2.7%

HSBC

3.4%

-----

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL

U.S.

CHINA

EURO AREA

UK

INDIA

Goldman Sachs

2.7%

2.8%

4.9%

0.7%

0.9%

6.7%

Morgan Stanley

2.8%

1.9%

4.2%

0.5%

-0.1%

6.4%

UBS Global Wealth Management*

3.1%

2.4%

4.9%

0.6%

0.2%

7.0%

Barclays

2.6%

1.2%

5.0%

0.3%

1.1%

6.2%

J.P.Morgan

2.7%

2.8%

4.8%

0.7%

0.9%

6.5%

BofA Global Research

3.1%

2.7%

4.8%

0.7%

1.1%

7.1%

Deutsche Bank

3.2%

2.7%

4.7%

0.9%

1.2%

7.0%

Citigroup

2.6%

2.5%

4.7%

0.7%

1.0%

7.1%

HSBC

2.6%

2.3%

4.9%

0.5%

0.4%

6.3%

UBS Global Research*

3.2%

2.7%

4.8%

0.7%

1.1%

6.8%

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Maju Samuel, Tasim Zahid, Devika Syamnath and Shounak Dasgupta)

((Roshan.Abraham@thomsonreuters.com))

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