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CRUDE OIL FUTURES: DRILLING DOWN TO SUPPORT, IS IT SOLID?

Oil prices are tumbling by more than $4 a barrel on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran at the weekend bypassed oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies.

Indeed, NYMEX crude futures CLc1 are sliding more than 6% and on track for their biggest daily percentage decline since July 2022.

This, after a rally in the futures stalled earlier this month just shy of some significant chart barriers. Now the question is, can support step up?

On October 8, the futures advanced to an intraday high of $78.46. However, upon nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2022-May 2023 decline, the resistance line from the March 2022 high, the 200-week moving average, and the mid-August high, the futures ran out of steam, and reversed to the downside.

The futures, which are now around $67.25, are off more than 14% from their recent high.

Strong support resides in the $66.80-$62.43 area. Besides the June 2023 low at $66.80, the early October low at $66.33, and the September low at $65.27, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2020-March 2022 advance is at $65.25. The March 2023 low was at $64.12, the May 2023 trough was at $63.64, and the December 2021 trough was at $62.43.

However, the renewed weakness keeps intact the potential for a much deeper decline. This, given that the futures have historically tended to bottom much further below their 200-WMA than was the case in September.

On the upside, the weekly resistance line from the March 2022 high is now around $78.25, while the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2022-May 2023 decline is at $79.42. The 200-WMA is now around $79.50, and the mid-August high was at $80.16.

If crude can punch through $80.16, and take out all of these resistance levels on a weekly closing basis, it will have the potential to signal a major change in trend.

(Terence Gabriel)

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FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

UK MOTOR FINANCE RULING HITS EXPOSED LENDERS, ANALYSTS CRUNCH NUMBERS - CLICK HERE

EU BEVERAGES MAY BE FACING A NASTY HANGOVER ON NOV. 6 - CLICK HERE

WHY DID THE NIKKEI FINISH HIGHER ON MONDAY? - CLICK HERE

INVESTORS SEE FRENCH AND GERMAN STOCKS AS EUROPE'S 'WEAK LINKS' - JPM - CLICK HERE

AIRLINES LIFT EUROPE AS OIL PROVIDES DRAG - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: SCREENS FLASH GREEN - CLICK HERE

EVENT RISKS GALORE THIS WEEK CLICK HERE

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)