Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

So should Alector (NASDAQ:ALEC) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

See our latest analysis for Alector

When Might Alector Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. When Alector last reported its June 2024 balance sheet in August 2024, it had zero debt and cash worth US$503m. In the last year, its cash burn was US$218m. So it had a cash runway of about 2.3 years from June 2024. That's decent, giving the company a couple years to develop its business. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

How Well Is Alector Growing?

Some investors might find it troubling that Alector is actually increasing its cash burn, which is up 12% in the last year. Also concerning, operating revenue was actually down by 46% in that time. Considering both these metrics, we're a little concerned about how the company is developing. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Easily Can Alector Raise Cash?

Alector seems to be in a fairly good position, in terms of cash burn, but we still think it's worthwhile considering how easily it could raise more money if it wanted to. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Alector has a market capitalisation of US$493m and burnt through US$218m last year, which is 44% of the company's market value. From this perspective, it seems that the company spent a huge amount relative to its market value, and we'd be very wary of a painful capital raising.

How Risky Is Alector's Cash Burn Situation?

Even though its falling revenue makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought Alector's cash runway was relatively promising. Summing up, we think the Alector's cash burn is a risk, based on the factors we mentioned in this article. Its important for readers to be cognizant of the risks that can affect the company's operations, and we've picked out 4 warning signs for Alector that investors should know when investing in the stock.

If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.