Federal Reserve officials will get another important look at inflation on Thursday morning, ahead of their Nov. 6-7 policy meeting. The latest reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index is likely to show a small uptick in U.S. inflation, which remains above the central bank's target.

The PCE report for September will be published at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 31, as part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal income and outlays report.

Economists' consensus forecast on Wednesday called for a 0.2% increase in the PCE price index in September, which would be up 2.1% from a year earlier and compare with a 0.1% rise in August.

The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy components, is expected to have gained 0.3% during the month of September -- an acceleration from its 0.1% increase during the previous month. The year-over-year gain in core PCE is expected to slow by a tenth of a percentage point, to 2.6%.

Monthly inflation of roughly 0.17% is consistent with achievement of the Fed's 2% annual target.

A rebound in core PCE price index inflation in September would mirror the pattern of the consumer price index, an alternative measure of inflation. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Oct. 10 showed a higher-than-expected 0.3% rise in core CPI last month, or an increase of 3.3% from a year earlier.

CPI inflation has been running hotter than the PCE price index of late, due to differences in how the two indexes are constructed. The two price measures have different weightings in various price categories. A lower exposure to housing costs, in particular, has helped the PCE price index consistently come in below CPI this year.

The BEA published third-quarter gross domestic product data on Wednesday morning, which included a quarterly, annualized rate of inflation that served as a preview of Thursday's data . The core PCE price index increased at a 2.2% pace during the period, while economists had been looking for a 2.1% annual rate. That was down significantly from the second quarter's 2.8% annualized increase.

The data suggest a 0.3% core PCE price index increase in September, the last month of the quarter. Alternatively, if September comes in at 0.2%, August's increase could be revised higher.

The headline PCE price index rose at a 1.5% annual pace in the third quarter, due to a decline in energy prices, down from the second quarter's 2.5% rate.

The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee lowered its federal-funds rate target range by half a percentage point on Sept. 18, to 4.75% to 5.0%, after holding rates steady since July 2023. Interest-rate futures on Wednesday were pricing in an overwhelming likelihood of a quarter-point decrease in the fed-funds rate at the November meeting.