Collegium Pharmaceutical COLL, a commercial-stage specialty pharma company, that focuses on improving the lives of people suffering from serious medical conditions, is expected to beat estimates when it reports third-quarter 2024 results on Nov. 7, after market close. The company’s commercial portfolio comprises its marketed pain-management drugs, Belbuca, Xtampza ER, Nucynta IR and Nucynta ER and Symproic, in the United States.

Collegium recently diversified its commercial presence beyond pain management by foraying into the neurology market with the recent acquisition of Ironshore Therapeutics. This strategic move added Jornay PM (methylphenidate HCl), a central nervous system stimulant for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to COLL’s commercial portfolio. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COLL’s earnings per share is currently pinned at $1.63 while that for revenues is currently pegged at $161.53 million.

Let's see how things might have shaped up for the upcoming quarterly release.

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Factors to Consider Regarding COLL’s Q3 Earnings

Revenues generated from the third-quarter sales of Collegium’s lead drug, Belbuca, for severe and persistent pain, are likely to have increased, driven by rising prescription trends. In the last reported quarter, the company’s Belbuca net revenues were up 21% year over year. Sales of Xtampza ER are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by gross to net improvement.

During the second quarter of 2024, Collegium announced that the FDA has granted pediatric exclusivity for NucyntaIR and Nucynta ER, which has extended the drugs’ market exclusivity by an additional six months, to Jan. 3, 2027, and Dec. 27, 2025, respectively. This is likely to have boosted its sales in the third quarter. Incremental revenues from the sale of Symproic are also expected to have contributed to the company’s top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

Year to date, shares of COLL have gained 12.7% against the industry’s 5.9% decline.

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Please note that during the third quarter, Collegium completed the acquisition of Ironshore Therapeutics, which added Jornay PM, a marketed ADHD drug, to its commercial portfolio. In the upcoming earnings conference call, investors can expect updates regarding the positive impact of the acquisition on the company’s revenues.

In an earlier press release, COLL stated that it expects Jornay PM to become its leading growth driver. Net revenue from the sale of Jornay PM is expected to be more than $100 million in 2024. Additionally, Collegium also stated that in the first half of 2024, the drug’s prescriptions grew 32% year over year. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Collegium’s adjusted operating expenses in third-quarter 2024 are likely to have declined year over year.

COLL’s Earnings Surprise History

Collegium beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average earnings surprise of 7.01%. In the last reported quarter, the company came up with an earnings surprise of 3.85%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Collegium this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: COLL has an Earnings ESP of +1.23% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.65 per share exceeds the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63 per share.

Zacks Rank: COLL currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Price and Consensus

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Quote

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other pharma stocks worth considering from the overall medical sector, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Novo Nordisk NVO has an Earnings ESP of +1.02% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Novo Nordisk have gained 9.6% year to date. NVO beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed the mark once, delivering an average surprise of 3.18%. NVO is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov. 6, before the opening bell.

Pfizer PFE has an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of Pfizer have lost 1.2% year to date. PFE beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average earnings surprise of 69.82%. PFE is slated to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29, before market open.

Regeneron REGN has an Earnings ESP of +2.65% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Regeneron’s shares have gained 6.2% in the year-to-date period. REGN beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, delivering an average earnings surprise of 6.01%. REGN is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 31, before market open.

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