Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$4.0b, some 7.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$2.56, 28% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Arch Capital Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Arch Capital Group from ten analysts is for revenues of US$17.9b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 37% to US$9.59 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$17.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.41 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$122, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arch Capital Group at US$143 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$98.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Arch Capital Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Arch Capital Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arch Capital Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Arch Capital Group .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.