It's been a good week for Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 5.4% to US$270. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 32% to hit US$1.56 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vulcan Materials

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vulcan Materials' 19 analysts is for revenues of US$8.10b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 9.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 39% to US$8.99. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.09 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$281. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Vulcan Materials analyst has a price target of US$325 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$169. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Vulcan Materials' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 15 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Vulcan Materials is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$281, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Vulcan Materials going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Vulcan Materials that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.