It's been a pretty great week for Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to US$7.83 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$1.2b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.46, an impressive 66% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Herbalife

Taking into account the latest results, Herbalife's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$5.08b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 125% to US$1.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.94 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 25% to US$9.70following these changes. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Herbalife analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Herbalife's past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 0.7% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.3% annually. Although Herbalife's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Herbalife's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Herbalife. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Herbalife analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Herbalife has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.