The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.
In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ:ACGL), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Now this is not to say that the company presents the best investment opportunity around, but profitability is a key component to success in business.
View our latest analysis for Arch Capital Group
The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term, so you'd expect share price to follow earnings per share (EPS) outcomes eventually. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. Arch Capital Group's shareholders have have plenty to be happy about as their annual EPS growth for the last 3 years was 44%. While that sort of growth rate isn't sustainable for long, it certainly catches the eye of prospective investors.
It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. It's noted that Arch Capital Group's revenue from operations was lower than its revenue in the last twelve months, so that could distort our analysis of its margins. The good news is that Arch Capital Group is growing revenues, and EBIT margins improved by 3.8 percentage points to 30%, over the last year. Both of which are great metrics to check off for potential growth.
The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.
Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Arch Capital Group.
Owing to the size of Arch Capital Group, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a significant proportion of the company. But we are reassured by the fact they have invested in the company. Notably, they have an enviable stake in the company, worth US$1.0b. Holders should find this level of insider commitment quite encouraging, since it would ensure that the leaders of the company would also experience their success, or failure, with the stock.
It means a lot to see insiders invested in the business, but shareholders may be wondering if remuneration policies are in their best interest. Our quick analysis into CEO remuneration would seem to indicate they are. The median total compensation for CEOs of companies similar in size to Arch Capital Group, with market caps over US$8.0b, is around US$13m.
The Arch Capital Group CEO received US$7.1m in compensation for the year ending December 2023. That seems pretty reasonable, especially given it's below the median for similar sized companies. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when it's reasonable, that gives a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. Generally, arguments can be made that reasonable pay levels attest to good decision-making.
Arch Capital Group's earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. An added bonus for those interested is that management hold a heap of stock and the CEO pay is quite reasonable, illustrating good cash management. The strong EPS improvement suggests the businesses is humming along. Big growth can make big winners, so the writing on the wall tells us that Arch Capital Group is worth considering carefully. You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Arch Capital Group you should be aware of.
Although Arch Capital Group certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see companies with more skin in the game, then check out this handpicked selection of companies that not only boast of strong growth but have strong insider backing.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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