Market forces rained on the parade of uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for next year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 14% to US$7.16 in the past 7 days. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.

After the downgrade, the 13 analysts covering uniQure are now predicting revenues of US$41m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 45% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 37% to US$3.09. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$64m and losses of US$2.99 per share in 2025. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for uniQure

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €17.56, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic uniQure analyst has a price target of €26.09 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €6.41. With such a wide range in price targets, the analysts are almost certainly betting on widely diverse outcomes for the underlying business. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that uniQure's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 34% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.5% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% per year. So it looks like uniQure is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at uniQure. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on uniQure after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.