Asia Distillates-Premiums decline amid worries of Dec supply

Reuters
2024-11-06
Asia Distillates-Premiums decline amid worries of Dec supply

SINGAPORE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Asia's middle distillates markets declined as a knee-jerk reaction against a backdrop of softening energy prices amid the U.S. election, with an air of caution over December supply-demand fundamentals emerging.

On the diesel front, supplies are expected to remain sufficient in December despite an expected dip in China's export barrels, as some key refiners bring their refining units back online after maintenance.

The likelihood of further run cuts in northeast Asia is low now because of a recovery in margins, there could be refinery run increases instead, one trade source said.

Singapore's complex refining margins were near a three-month high of around $6.7 a barrel, erasing most of earlier losses. DUB-SIN-REF

Demand remains a question mark for now, though high-sulphur markets will still see buying interest.

For jet fuel markets, earlier positivity turned shaky as some traders were now concerned about November being oversupplied in Asia, given the talks of quota changes by one key China oil major being confirmed already.

A deluge of Middle East and India origin barrels is still bound for southeast Asia, ship-tracking data and data from trade sources showed, some of which cannot be digested by a few northeast Asian buyers because of specification issues.

However, the arbitrage between Asia and the U.S. West Coast is still supportive and that could still buoy demand, though things could flip again in December, one trade source said.

Asian jet fuel exports to the U.S. are slated to hit a six-month high in November, Kpler shiptracking data showed.

Cash premiums for jet fuel JET-SIN-DIF fell to slightly more than a two-week low of 66 cents a barrel reflecting the cautiousness in jet fuel markets.

At the market's close, refining margins GO10SGCKMc1 for 10ppm sulphur gasoil were little changed, holding its ground at around $16 a barrel.

Cash differentials GO10-SIN-DIF for 10ppm sulphur gasoil reversed some of the previous session's gains and fell to $1.16 a barrel, despite some firm buying interest emerging from Ampol on the trading window.

Regrade JETREG10SGMc1, however, still traded firmer at a premium of 95 cents a barrel, given the increasing worries of rising gasoil supplies in comparison with jet fuel.

SINGAPORE CASH DEALS O/AS

- One gasoil deal, no jet fuel deal

INVENTORIES

- U.S. crude oil stocks rose while fuel inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. EIA/S

- Middle distillates stockpiles at Fujairah Oil Industry Zone were little changed at 1.89 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4, according to industry information service S&P Global Commodity Insights. FUJAIRAH/

NEWS

- Discounts on Iranian crude oil sold to China are at their tightest in around five years as lower exports drive up prices amid concerns that Middle East tensions may disrupt supply, trading sources said.

- Iraq's cabinet said on Tuesday it had ordered the semi-autonomous Kurdish region to immediately transfer its oil output to the country's state-run firm SOMO.

- Oil and gas producers began shutting in U.S. Gulf of Mexico output and pulling workers off platforms on Tuesday ahead of a late hurricane season storm threatening offshore fields.

PRICES

MIDDLE DISTILLATES

CASH ($/BBL)

ASIA CLOSE

Change

Prev Close

RIC

Spot Gas Oil 0.5%

83.85

-1.02

84.87

GO-SIN

GO 0.5 Diff

-5.61

-0.04

-5.57

GO-SIN-DIF

Spot Gas Oil 0.25%

89.87

-1.02

90.89

GO25-SIN

GO 0.25 Diff

0.41

-0.04

0.45

GO25-SIN-DIF

Spot Gas Oil 0.05%

90.05

-1.02

91.07

GO005-SIN

GO 0.05 Diff

0.59

-0.04

0.63

GO005-SIN-DIF

Spot Gas Oil 0.001%

90.62

-1.00

91.62

GO10-SIN

GO 0.001 Diff

1.16

-0.02

1.18

GO10-SIN-DIF

Spot Jet/Kero

90.98

-1.14

92.12

JET-SIN

Jet/Kero Diff

0.66

-0.22

0.89

JET-SIN-DIF

For a list of derivatives prices, including margins, please double click the RICs below.

Brent M1

BRENTSGMc1

Gasoil M1

GOSGSWMc1

Gasoil M1/M2

GOSGSPDMc1

Gasoil M2

GOSGSWMc2

Regrade M1

JETREGSGMc1

Regrade M2

JETREGSGMc2

Jet M1

JETSGSWMc1

Jet M1/M2

JETSGSPDMc1

Jet M2

JETSGSWMc2

Gasoil 500ppm-Dubai Cracks M1

GOSGCKMc1

Gasoil 500ppm-Dubai Cracks M2

GOSGCKMc2

Jet Cracks M1

JETSGCKMc1

Jet Cracks M2

JETSGCKMc2

East-West M1

LGOAEFSMc1

East-West M2

LGOAEFSMc2

LGO M1

LGOAMc1

LGO M1/M2

LGOASPDMc1

LGO M2

LGOAMc2

Crack LGO-Brent M1

LGOACKMc1

Crack LGO-Brent M2

LGOACKMc2

(Reporting by Trixie Yap; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

((trixie.yap@thomsonreuters.com;))

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