BUZZ-COMMENT-Investors may need to seek safety in assets other than USD

Reuters
2024-11-12

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Investors may need to seek safety in assets other than the dollar to which they have turned ahead the possible trade war that may result from the policies of the new president of the United States.

Because the dollar is also the global reserve currency, it is making big gains as worries about trade tariffs and the inflation they could create fuels a flight to safety.

This appreciation will exacerbate the situation as it undermines U.S. exports and cheapens those of the nations that Donald Trump is targeting.

EUR/USD, which was trading at a year high shortly before the U.S. election, has since dropped toward this year's low. USD/CNY is surging back toward a record high.

This heightens the probability that the U.S. will be forced to tackle the dollar's appreciation in order to adjust a situation its leaders deem unfair.

If so, there is good cause for investors to seek safety elsewhere, at the very least spreading risk away from the currency that is at the root of the issue.

The Swiss franc, gold and the euro traders have sold are all considered safe, while Japan's yen, which is extremely weak and almost certainly under invested, could be a good choice when considering what may become safe.

Should the U.S. president side with Japan - with whom he currently has no fight - a joint effort to push USD/JPY lower could have a massive impact on the broader value of the dollar.

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))

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