Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:
-- The US dollar index scales 107, two-year United States Treasury up to 4.36%, 10-year at 4.45% after Chair Powell repeats that the Fed isn't in a hurry to lower rates amid strong economy and bumpy inflation. December 2024 OIS retreats to -11bps from -15bps, implying a 55% chance of a pause next month.
-- Day ahead: US retail sales, SocGen forecasts +0.2% month over month, excluding autos +0.1%. Industrial production, SocGen estimates -0.1%. Federal Reserve speakers Collins, Williams. European Central Bank speakers Lane and Cipollone.
--Japan Q3 gross domestic product growth 0.2% quarter over quarter (+0.9% SAAR quarter over quarter). Private consumption +0.9% quarter over quarter, nudges Bank of Japan towards a rate hike in December. Business spending -0.2%, net exports subtract 0.4%. GDP deflator slowed to 2.5% year over year from 3.2%.
-- UK Q3 GDP +0.1% quarter over quarter (1.0% year over year), below forecast. Private consumption +0.5%, business investment +1.2%, exports -0.2%.
-- China's October activity shows uneven impact of stimulus: Retail sales rebound 4.8% year over year, the fastest pace since February. Industrial production (5.3% year over year) and FAI (3.4% year over year) miss forecast. Downturn in property investment deepens to -10.3%.
-- Nikkei +0.3%, EUR 10-year IRS +2bps at 2.30%, Brent crude -1.4% at $71.5/barrel, Gold -0.4% at $2,564/oz.
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