For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:IRDM) shareholders, since the share price is down 30% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 22%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 23% lower in that time.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Iridium Communications isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Iridium Communications
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Iridium Communications became profitable within the last five years. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So it's worth looking at other metrics to try to understand the share price move.
With a rather small yield of just 1.9% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 10% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Iridium Communications more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Iridium Communications in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
Investors in Iridium Communications had a tough year, with a total loss of 22% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 35%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 3%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Iridium Communications is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Iridium Communications is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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