For most investors, how much a stock's price changes over time is important. This factor can impact your investment portfolio as well as help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.

The fear of missing out, or FOMO, also plays a factor in investing, especially with particular tech giants, as well as popular consumer-facing stocks.

What if you'd invested in Allison Transmission (ALSN) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to ALSN for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?

Allison Transmission's Business In-Depth

With that in mind, let's take a look at Allison Transmission's main business drivers.

Headquartered in Indianapolis, IN, Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a manufacturer of fully-automatic transmissions for medium and heavy-duty commercial and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. In fact, the company is the largest producer of fully-automatic transmissions, holding the leading position in several niche markets. The firm also offers electric hybrid and fully electric propulsion systems. 

The company segregates revenues by end markets. In North America, it serves On-Highway (contributed 50.4% in 2023) and Off-Highway (2%) end markets. Likewise, Outside North America, it serves On-Highway (15.7%) and Off-Highway (3.4%) end markets. Besides on and off-highway, it also serves Defense (5.5%), and Service Parts, Support Equipment and Other (23%) end markets.

Within the On-Highway market, it serves fully-automatic transmissions in North America, majorly catering to Class 4-5, Class 6-7 and Class 8 straight trucks, conventional transit, shuttle and coach buses, school buses and motorhomes. Outside North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa (EMEA) is the company’s largest market.  

In the Off-highway market, the company offers products used in vehicles and equipment that serve energy, mining and construction applications in North America and overseas. Outside North America, Asia-Pacific and EMEA constitute the firm’s key markets.

Allison’s Defense end market helps in providing a hedge against economic cycles and disruptions. It supplies transmissions for medium- and heavy-tactical-wheeled vehicle platforms, including the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, Light Armored Vehicle, Stryker Armored Vehicle, Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle, Heavy Dump Truck, Heavy Equipment Transporters, et al.

The company’s Service Parts, Support Equipment and Other end market comprises Allison-branded service parts and transmission fluids, aluminium die cast components, extended transmission coverage, royalties, saleable engineering and support equipment.

Bottom Line

Putting together a successful investment portfolio takes a combination of research, patience, and a little bit of risk. For Allison Transmission, if you bought shares a decade ago, you're likely feeling really good about your investment today.

According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in November 2014 would be worth $3,467.26, or a gain of 246.73%, as of November 20, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.

The S&P 500 rose 188.81% and the price of gold increased 111.78% over the same time frame in comparison.

Looking ahead, analysts are expecting more upside for ALSN.

While rising R&D expenses and labor costs, stretched balance sheet, and uncertain macroeconomic conditions weigh on Allison’s near-term prospects, several positives about the company lead us to believe in its longer-term prospects. For starters, Allison is seeing robust demand from the North America On-Highway end market thanks to strong demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles.  The company is also well-positioned to benefit from rising global defense budgets. For 2024, Allison is targeting additional revenues from this market. Focus on advanced technology and continued innovation in product development augur well. Strategic partnerships provide the company with growth opportunities in global export markets. Allison's investor-friendly moves also instill confidence. Investors should wait for a better exit point. 

The stock is up 17.87% over the past four weeks, and no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 5 higher, for fiscal 2024. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.

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