Scotiabank noted that Canada updates the consumer price index for October at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
Estimates for headline inflation range from 0.2% to 0.4% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted (NSA), while Scotiabank is at 0.4%, and 1.8% to 2% year over year, while Scotiabank is at 2%, from 1.6% previously.
A 0.4% month-over-month NSA rise would translate into about a 0.3% seasonally adjusted increase, stated Scotiabank. As a consequence, everyone expects the prior month's dip to have been temporary while still leaving behind soft overall inflation.
Key will be the trimmed mean and weighted median 'core' gauges that are preferred by the Bank of Canada, pointed out Scotiabank. The month-over-month seasonally adjusted annual rate measures will inform the tracking of underlying price pressures at the margin. They have been ebbing over recent reports.
the bank wouldn't be surprised to see volatile services inflation pick up again from recent lows.
CPI is arguably not the most important data point to consider, according to BMO. That may be the following week's gross domestic product figures that will inform tracking of Q3 and Q4 growth and as such whether the BoC is still trapped in a pattern of downward revisions to its growth projections.
If so, then it would once again add more slack than the BoC had estimated in the October Monetary Policy Report and increase its concern toward undershooting 2% inflation going forward which would be incrementally dovish to size and pace arguments. The next jobs report could also matter, added the bank.
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