If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after we looked into Hexcel (NYSE:HXL), the trends above didn't look too great.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Hexcel, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.089 = US$227m ÷ (US$2.9b - US$300m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

Therefore, Hexcel has an ROCE of 8.9%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 9.6% average generated by the Aerospace & Defense industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Hexcel

In the above chart we have measured Hexcel's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Hexcel for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Hexcel Tell Us?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Hexcel. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 15% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Hexcel to turn into a multi-bagger.

The Bottom Line

In summary, it's unfortunate that Hexcel is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 22% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for Hexcel that we think you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.