Crude oil futures pushed higher Monday as the geopolitical risk focus turned from the Middle East to Eastern Europe after President Biden approved Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-distance missiles that could strike deeper into Russia, raising concerns of a possible escalation in the conflict.

Ukraine, which has long pleaded with the U.S. to allow it to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, is expected to deploy them first in Russia's Kursk region, where Russian forces are fighting to take back territory seized by Ukraine's military in a surprise summer offensive.

The Ukraine-Russia risk premium and a weakening dollar were the main contributors to the gains, Ritterbusch said, adding that oil's price spike seemed "mismatched against fresh headlines but with the market in oversold territory, it didn't take much to boost values."

Oil prices also were helped by news that crude production was halted at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe's largest with output of ~750K boe/day; operator Equinor (EQNR) said it is working to re-establish production.

Also tightening global supplies, Kazakhstan's biggest oilfield Tengiz, operated by Chevron (CVX), reduced oil output by 28%-30% due to ongoing repairs; repairs were expected to be complete by Saturday.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for December delivery ended +3.2% to $69.16/bbl, and front-month January Brent crude (CO1:COM) also closed +3.2% to $73.30/bbl, the largest one-day dollar and percentage gain since October 10 and best settlement level since November 8 for both benchmarks.

U.S. natural gas (NG1:COM) gained as colder weather forecasts for early December raised demand expectations; the Nymex front-month December contract ended +5.3% at $2.973/MMBtu.

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U.S. gasoline prices at the pump look set to fall below $3/gal on average in time for Thanksgiving, when holiday travel is expected to climb back to pre-COVID levels.

AAA said it expects 71.7M people to travel by car for at least 50 miles from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the following Monday, 1.3M more travelers than last year and the most since before the pandemic for the seven-day travel window.

In more than a dozen states east of the Rocky Mountains, drivers may pay as little as $2.25-$2.50/gal this year, AAA said; at the end of last week, the national average was $3.08.

AAA also forecast the number of passengers traveling by air on Thanksgiving would rise to 5.84M, up from 5.73M in 2023 as well as the 5.28M who flew in pre-pandemic 2019.