There is growing speculation that recent Nielsen data showing strength in the ultra-premium pasta sauce retail category is because it's nabbing traffic and market share from casual Italian dining restaurants. According to Bank of America, the line of thinking is that as the quality of at-home Italian options approaches restaurant caliber, the lower cost for a meal that is relatively low-prep could outweigh the appeal of eating out.

BofA analyst Sara Senator said the firm's analysis showed a -49% correlation between Rao's volume velocity and Italian full-service restaurant traffic growth, but shows an even higher -67% correlation between Rao's volume velocity and overall full-service restaurant traffic growth. Interestingly, she noted that the implication is the trade-off between food-away-from-home and food-at-home choices is broader than a one-to-one Italian mapping.

Three chains that could be feeling the heat from the rise of Rao's (NASDAQ:CPB) are Carrabba's Italian Grill (BLMN), Maggiano's (EAT), and Olive Garden (NYSE:DRI). The BofA chart below shows that pricing differential may be a factor.

Notably, The Campbell's Company (CPB) recently dropped "Soup" due to the Rao's brand taking center stage.