It's been a mediocre week for Elders Limited (ASX:ELD) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to AU$7.50 in the week since its latest full-year results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of AU$0.29 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit AU$3.1b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Elders

Following the latest results, Elders' eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$3.39b in 2025. This would be a decent 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 93% to AU$0.55. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$3.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.57 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Elders after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

The consensus price target was unchanged at AU$8.89, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Elders analyst has a price target of AU$9.75 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$7.90. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Elders' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Elders' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Elders. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Elders going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Elders has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.