A month has gone by since the last earnings report for NiSource (NI). Shares have added about 8.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is NiSource due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

NiSource Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss

NiSource reported third-quarter 2024 operating earnings per share (EPS) of 20 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 14 cents by 42.9%. The bottom line increased 5.3% from the year-ago recorded figure of 19 cents.

On a GAAP basis, the company reported an EPS of 19 cents compared with 17 cents in the prior-year quarter.

Total Revenues

Operating revenues of $1.08 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.094 billion by 1.6%. However, the top line increased 3.8% from the prior-year figure of $1.04 billion.

Highlights of the Release

Total operating expenses amounted to $858 million, up 8% from the year-ago level of $794.4 million.

Operating income totaled $218.3 million, down 6.3% from the year-ago figure of $233 million.

Total gas distribution in Sales and Transportation was recorded at 96 Million British Thermal Units per day (MMDth), up 3.2% from the prior-year quarter’s 93 MMDth.

Total electric sales were recorded at 4,558.1 gigawatt-hours (GWh), up 4.2% from the prior-year quarter’s 4,375.4 GWh.

Financial Update

NiSource's cash and cash equivalents as of Sept. 30, 2024, were $0.126 billion compared with $2.25 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.

Long-term debts (excluding those due within a year) as of Sept. 30, 2024, were $12.09 billion compared with $11.06 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.

Net cash flows from operating activities in the first nine months of 2024 were $1.24 billion compared with $1.54 billion in the year-ago period.

Guidance

The company continues to expect 2024 non-GAAP earnings in the band of $1.70-1.74 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.73 per share, higher than the midpoint of the company’s guided range.

NI expects to witness a CAGR of 6-8% for earnings through 2029. It expects capital expenditures of $19.3 billion for the 2025-2029 period. The new base capital expenditure plan is nearly $2.9 billion bigger than the prior five-year plan.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -11.32% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, NiSource has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, NiSource has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

NiSource belongs to the Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry. Another stock from the same industry, FirstEnergy (FE), has gained 1.9% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.

FirstEnergy reported revenues of $3.73 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.9%. EPS of $0.85 for the same period compares with $0.88 a year ago.

FirstEnergy is expected to post earnings of $0.70 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +12.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.7%.

FirstEnergy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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